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Will Bitcoin price hit $92K if Trump wins the election?

 Will Bitcoin price hit $92K if Trump wins the election?

Bitcoin is projected to surge to $92K if Donald Trump secures victory in the U.S. presidential election, according to ex-Morgan Stanley analysts. Experts remain divided, with some foreseeing wider economic conditions affecting crypto optimism.

Will Bitcoin Price Hit $92K If Trump Wins the Election?


Highlights

  • Bitwise Head of Alpha Strategies predicts a Bitcoin price surge to $92K if Trump wins.
  • Trump currently leads Kamala Harris on Polymarket prediction markets.
  • Bitcoin price trades over $67K, with fluctuations linked to U.S. bond yields and dollar strength.

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Trump's Victory Could Propel Bitcoin to $92K
As the 2024 U.S. presidential election approaches, market experts are keenly observing the potential impact of Donald Trump's victory on Bitcoin. Jeff Park, Head of Alpha Strategies at Bitwise, predicts a rally to $92,000 based on statistical analysis of Trump’s odds in the election. The prediction hinges on the idea that Trump’s policies may create favorable conditions for the cryptocurrency market.



While Polymarket data shows Trump gaining ground, national polls from FiveThirtyEight present a closer race, with Harris slightly leading at 48.1% to Trump’s 46.3%. Notably, Elon Musk's endorsement of Trump during rallies in Pennsylvania has contributed to the shift in market sentiment.

Bitcoin's Rally Faces Market Challenges
Despite Trump’s increasing chances of winning, Bitcoin's price rally has cooled off, reflecting broader market challenges such as rising bond yields and a stronger U.S. dollar. Market analyst Tony Sycamore points out that the speed of financial tightening is impacting crypto performance, adding further uncertainty to Bitcoin's outlook.


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Caroline Mauron, co-founder of Orbit Markets, a crypto derivatives provider, notes that while Trump’s win may introduce volatility, the long-term outlook for crypto remains positive. Higher yields could create temporary headwinds for risk assets, but the election’s outcome could prove to be pivotal for Bitcoin’s trajectory.

Bitcoin's Current Performance and Market Conditions
Currently trading at $67K, Bitcoin has retraced some of its recent gains as investors await the election’s outcome. Large investors, including whales, are capitalizing on this dip to accumulate more BTC.



Meanwhile, spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to see inflows. On Wednesday, BlackRock's iShares BTC ETF registered $317.5 million in new investments, contributing to a total daily inflow of $192.4 million across 11 Bitcoin ETFs. Additionally, tomorrow’s expiry of $5.22 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options on Deribit, including $4.21 billion in BTC options, is expected to influence short-term market movements, with a max pain point at $64,000.

In summary, while Donald Trump’s potential win in the 2024 election could provide a bullish scenario for Bitcoin, external market factors and volatility in the lead-up to the election may play significant roles in shaping the cryptocurrency’s future price.



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