Veteran trader Peter Brandt has issued a stark warning, drawing a historical comparison between Bitcoin’s current price structure and the infamous 1977 soybean crash.
According to Brandt, the commodities market at that time formed a “broadening top” before plunging by 50% — a pattern he now sees developing in Bitcoin’s charts. If this parallel holds true, Brandt suggests that MicroStrategy (MSTR), with its massive Bitcoin holdings exceeding 200,000 BTC, could end up “deeply underwater.”
In his post on X, Brandt highlighted the inherent risk of aggressive trading strategies, cautioning that anyone risking 5% of their capital per trade is bound to “self-destruct.” He balanced his outlook by presenting two divergent paths for Bitcoin: a bullish trajectory toward $250,000 or a sharp decline to $60,000. This reflects a more nuanced stance from his previous bullish outlook, where he predicted continued upside for Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, and Stellar.
Responding to another analyst, TheMarketSniper, who argued that the comparison to soybeans may be overstated, Brandt admitted that both interpretations could be valid. “If BTC goes up, I want to be long; if it goes down, I want to be short,” he stated, underscoring his pragmatic trading approach.
Meanwhile, other analysts have warned that Bitcoin may be nearing a cycle peak. Crypto₿irb’s “Cycle Peak Countdown” model suggests the bull run is 99.3% complete, implying that a correction could arrive within days. Simultaneously, Binance founder Changpeng Zhao reignited the Bitcoin vs gold debate, predicting that BTC could eventually surpass gold’s $30 trillion valuation.
For MSTR, Brandt’s analysis serves as a reminder that Bitcoin’s volatility remains a double-edged sword. A potential 50% drawdown could place significant pressure on the company’s leveraged Bitcoin strategy and test investor confidence.
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